Thursday, December 06, 2007

The Wait

Michael writing tonight...

So Amy posted earlier today about people receiving their referrals. I don't get excited in any great manner as Amy does. I realize it's a time of joy for the families getting their matches, but for me I spend time thinking about the math involved.

I understand that batches of referrals are coming out about every 5 weeks. Each batch has about 4 days worth of dossiers processed. There is some variance (not much) as batches may come 4-6 weeks apart and may have 1-7 days worth of dossiers processed, but let's look at the averages.

We were logged in on April 23, 2007. The most recent matches took us through people logged in on December 8, 2005. That is a difference of 501 days worth of dossiers ahead of us. If an average batch has 4 days worth of dossiers, and they release 10 batches a year, then that is 40 days worth of dossiers processed per year. 501 divided by 40 = 12.5

We're being told that the wait should never exceed 3 years, but I don't see how this is possible. At the current rate, we'll be traveling in 2019, IF things don't slow down any more or get stopped entirely. I guess if we look at it this way, it's easier to see why someone told us we will be switching to special needs. Otherwise our daughter may graduate high school when I am roughly 66 years old.

Michael

Update - I've been told my math is off, but I was using numbers as I understood them from talking to Amy (my spouse) but Amy (the blog commenter in Virginia) says they are averaging 12 batches a year (though Amy the spouse says it's 4-6 weeks per batch) and 8 days of dossiers processed per batch on average. SO recalculate, 12 batches times 8 days = 96 days processed per year, divided into 501, still puts us well over 5 more years to go. Either way, it's a long time.


8 comments:

Amy said...

Ok, I know things are bad, but they aren't quite that bad. LOL! CCAA processed 12 batches in 2005, 2006, and 2007, so I'm not sure where you are getting 10 batches a year. Also, they averaged 8 LIDs a month in 2007, not 4. So yeah, it's still bad, but not quite as bad as you are predicting. At this rate it will be about 7 1/2 years instead of your calculated 12 1/2. Of course you also aren't calculating in attrition which I think will help things along a little bit. In another year, I think a lot of people will start dropping out leaving those of us with 2007 LIDs in less bad shape than we are currently thinking. Let's hope so, anyway.

Amy
LID 4/20/07

Michael - Lover of Amy said...

Admittedly, I did no research, but took my information from what my wife tells me. I swear she told me about a batch earlier this year that was only one or two days processed.

Love and Smiles said...

I can't possible understand completely where you are, but... I can imagine. I have ached for a child; I have wondered if God was going to fill that deepest desire of my heart; I have had to pray for patience for HIS time, HIS will. So I do understand to a tiny degree some of the emotions. Keep your chin up. Use this time to get completely healthy so you are healthy at 66 when your adult child needs you more than she ever has.
Pray boldly that things would move faster, pray the details.
I love you, guys! I am praying for you both and for Lynn Marie.

Amy said...

Hey--I found a very slight silver lining in the referral cloud this month. Each month I go to chinaadoptionforecast.com to calculate my estimated referral date. This is updated each month after referrals come in. The past few months, my new referral date estimation has been pushed farther down the line 1-7 months after each month's referral stats come in. However, this month, my estimated referral date is only 2 weeks later than it was last month! Am I grasping at straws here or what?

Yet Another Amy
LID 4/4/07

Amy said...

By the way, it's at 2012 right now, so, yes, only 5 short years...LOL...I might be only 60 when my youngest child graduates from high school.

Wendy @ adoptionandfire.typepad.com said...

I just don't understand what is going on. It's been so hard to be at the beginning of this slow down and just watch it get worse every month. I can't imagine what it must be like for those of you logged in late 06 to 07. I hope and pray that a speed up happens at some point. I am hitting the two year mark this month and will probably hit 25 or 26 months of waiting. I just don't even know what to say about those having to wait 3-5 years.

The Straight's said...

So sorry your wait is so long. Just remember Lynn Marie has already been pcked by Him for you. She is out there and will be home one day.

Christine said...

I am so sorry for your long wait. I didn't realize just how slow China is right now.

I may be out of line, but have you ever thought of switching countries? We are adopting from Ukraine, and just started the process in October 2007. We should be traveling in early Spring. We are adopting a little boy.

Wishing you Godspeed.